Pirates of the Red Sea

00:00
Speaker 1
The second Hamas attacked israeli civilians and started a war back in October, everyone feared it would spill out into a broader regional conflict. People were thinking about the West Bank, Lebanon, Iran, you know, land. But one of the most conspicuous spin offs of this war has been on water.

00:20
Speaker 2
Missile attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea used to be on thinkable. Since November, houthi fighters have carried out more than 20 of them.

00:30
Speaker 1
A rebel group from Yemen has been attacking ships in the Red Sea for months now.

00:35
Speaker 3
We will continue to prevent all vessels, regardless of their nationalities, headed to the israeli seaports until the necessary food and medical supplies are delivered to our brothers in the Gaza Strip.

00:46
Speaker 1
And the United States has been blowing up boats. In return, we're going to try and figure out what the Houthis want and whether they'll get it on today, explained.

00:59
Speaker 4
Support for today explained comes from into the mix, a podcast from Ben and Jerry's about joy and justice produced with Vox creative Priscilla Robinson, says the south side of Asheville, North Carolina, was once a tight knit community of friends and neighbors. But that changed in 1968 when the city approved plans for urban renewal and displaced more than half of Asheville's black residents, including Priscilla and her family. Today, she's fighting to preserve her neighborhood's history and seeking reparations for the harm. The story is on into the mix, and you can subscribe now.

01:38
Speaker 1
Sean Ramesburgham, joined by Joshua Keating, making his today explained debut. Joshua writes about the world for Vox, and he's here to tell us about this group from Yemen threatening global commerce, the Houthis.

01:51
Speaker 3
The Houthis, which are an Iran backed rebel group that controls a large swath of Yemen, have been launching attacks on container shipping through the Red Sea. Pretty quickly after the October 7 attacks, the Houthis declared their solidarity with Palestinians fighting Israel and actually launched some long range missiles at Israel, which were intercepted either by israeli air defenses or by the US military in the region. Yemen's Houthi rebels have claimed responsibility for a series of drones and missiles launched towards Israel's coastal holiday city of Ilat. Israel reported destroying an aerial target over the Red Sea. They've since shifted tactics to sort of targeting the shipping through this area.

02:44
Speaker 5
Houthi leader Mohammed al Huthi, sitting down for a rare interview, telling ABC News that the group will escalate strikes on any ship linked to Israel. Countries that attack us will be a legitimate target for us, such as the ships belonging to the usurping entity or heading to it.

03:03
Speaker 3
A lot of the ships they've attacked actually have no connection to Israel or very little connection to Israel. But at this point, there have been about 25 attacks by the Houthis against merchant vessels traveling through the Red Sea, and it's caused a great deal of chaos in the global shipping industry. The one that kind of kicked this whole thing off was in late November, when the Houthi rebels on helicopters basically seized the galaxy leader, an israeli linked cargo ship, and took it to Yemen, where it's still being held. Its fighters appeared to land by helicopter onto the top deck. They brandished weapons at the ship's crew and ordered them to lie down. Basically, they are being held essentially as hostages with pretty limited communication with the outside world. And the way the shipping industry works, these ships are.

03:59
Speaker 3
They could be owned by Marisk, a danish company, but flagged in Malta or Liberia. In the case of the galaxy leader, most of the crew came from the Philippines. So there are massive numbers of countries sort of involved in just one of these ships. But most of the attacks haven't been like that. There have been a few different types. They've tried a few different methods.

04:24
Speaker 2
The latest target of Yemen's Houthis, norwegian tanker Strinda, struck by a missile. Its crew is unharmed. Its owner says it traveled from Malaysia, heading to Italy with a shipment of palm oil.

04:37
Speaker 3
There was an attack in recent days using basically an uncrewed boat that exploded. And one that a lot of defense experts I talked to that really caught their eye is the Houthis have been firing ballistic missiles at ships. So a ballistic missile, as opposed to a cruise missile is one that goes a lot higher and a lot faster, basically, and is a lot more difficult to intercept. And this may have been the first ever use of anti ship ballistic missile anywhere in the world.

05:10
Speaker 1
So are the Houthis trying to steal cargo here, like proper pirates, or are they just in it to be disruptors?

05:16
Speaker 3
They're in it for the disruption. I mean, basically, they want to target both shipping that's sort of directly linked to Israel or linked to countries that are supporting Israel in its war in. You know, this is a way that they found that kind of globalized the conflict, impose costs on the international community for the actions Israel is taking in Gaza. And I think you can sort of see this in the context of a wider set of actions by Iran backed groups in the. So, you know, we've seen that with Hezbollah launching rockets into northern Israel. We've seen that with these militias attacking us troops in Iraq and Syria, which the US has begun retaliating against. And so I think the Houthi attacks. You can see as part of that.

06:06
Speaker 1
Who is this group that's attacking these ships, that's hijacking these ships? Who are the houthis? What's their origin story?

06:13
Speaker 3
So the official name of the group is Ansar Allah. They're usually called the Houthis. They're named after their founder, Hussain al Huthi, and his family, which is still kind of in a leadership role. They're Zayedis, which is a minority shia muslim sect. They are based primarily in northern Yemen. And they first kind of came on the scene as a rebel group in the 1990s fighting against Ali Abdullah Salah, who is the sort of longtime dictator of Yemen.

06:44
Speaker 1
I ask forgiveness from all my people, men and women, for any shortcomings during my 33 year long rule.

06:52
Speaker 3
Salah was overthrown amid Arab Spring protests in 2012, which left a kind of power vacuum that the Houthis took advantage of. Shiite hootie rebels have bombarded the president of Yemen's home and are trying to overthrow the government, says the information minister. They seized the capital city, Sana in 2014. Despite the fact that they hold the capitol, they're not recognized as the Yemeni government by the international community. They're still considered a rebel group. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has announced.

07:22
Speaker 1
He will designate the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization and Abdul Malik al Huuthi and two other leaders as terrorists.

07:29
Speaker 3
They received substantial funding and weaponry from Iran, and they've been fighting this extremely brutal war against Yemen's internationally recognized government, along with forces from an international coalition, which is led by Saudi Arabia, and has also received quite a bit of support from the US as well. It's been an absolutely brutal war. About 377,000 people have been killed. Most of those are actually not due to the fighting themselves, but due to things like malnutrition, unsafe water, famine.

08:01
Speaker 5
Yemen's eight year long war has caused millions to flee their homes to camps like al Jasser on the west coast. Within seconds of arriving, were surrounded by people begging for food and help. We don't even have a morsel, not a bit of rice to eat, he says. We have nothing.

08:20
Speaker 3
Things have gotten a bit better recently, actually. Like, there was a ceasefire brokered by the UN in 2022, and since then, the fighting has died down. And the Saudis have actually been holding talks with the Houthis about sort of ongoing peace talks, which are going on up until a few weeks before the October 7 attacks. The thing about the Houthis is they've never hid that they have sort of international ambitions. The official slogan of the group is God is great, death to America, death to Israel, curse on the Jews, and victory for Islam. So not exactly.

08:58
Speaker 3
You know, despite all that, they've generally been thought of as just a threat to Yemen itself or just a factor in Yemen, or for the countries like Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, who've been sort of actively involved in this coalition, this is the first time that they've really done something globally on the scale, I'd say.

09:19
Speaker 1
Do the Houthis have an advantage here?

09:22
Speaker 3
Well, I would say the advantage they have in this case is geography. There are basically two entrances to the Red Sea. In the north, there's the Suez Canal. In the south, there's this narrow 20 miles straight Baba mandab between Yemen on the arabian peninsula and Djibouti on the coast of Africa. And the fact that about 12% of global trade has to pass through this very narrow choke point gives them some leverage. It means that with fairly limited resources, they can disrupt a whole lot of global commerce just because there's this very narrow area. And if you want to go through the Red Sea, there's no way around it.

10:01
Speaker 1
So what does that mean? Does that mean this stops when the Houthis decide they don't want to do it anymore?

10:06
Speaker 3
What has basically happened is that in December, the US announced this sort of international coalition, which they're calling Operation Prosperity Guardian. This was basically done at the behest of the shipping companies to sort of make transit through the Red Sea safe again. There was a pretty stunning op ed in Lloyd's list, which is the kind official journal of the international Shipping Industry, which actually explicitly called for a return of gunboat diplomacy, using the sort of term from the 19th century that the same way the british navy like protected shipping in the 19th century, that the international community should be doing this.

10:47
Speaker 1
Again, let gunboat diplomacy be confined to the past. But there are legitimate uses of gunboats in the 21st century. The continued flow of world trade is one of them. Wow. Shots fired from Lloyd.

10:59
Speaker 3
Lloyd's list. Yeah. So we have a large flotilla contingent of ships in the Red Sea.

11:07
Speaker 4
The US Defense Department saying four boats with houthi rebels from Yemen firing on US Navy helicopters. Those choppers firing back, sinking three of the four ships and killing all crew members on board. The fourth boat got away.

11:22
Speaker 3
They're pretty effective, it seems, like, at shooting down these drones and missiles. There was an incident in recent days where they actually sunk four houthi attack boats. So it's getting a little more tense. The Houthis have said they're not going to stop, that. They view this as a moral mission on behalf of the people of Gaza, on behalf of the palestinian cause. They're going to keep fighting as long as the war in Gaza continues. The question now is, one, is the US going to sort of escalate by actually attacking targets in Yemen, which would be a pretty major escalation? And two, can they do enough in the Red Sea to make these shipping companies feel safe? The answer for now is not how.

12:11
Speaker 1
The hooties disruptions in the Red Sea affect you, me and the rest of the world when we're back on today.

12:18
Speaker 4
Explained support for today explain comes from ramp. If you're looking for a better way to do the finances for your business, Ramp would like to suggest that you check out ramp. Ramp is a corporate card and spend management software designed to help you save time and put money back in your pocket. Here's what Ramp promises it can give your finance teams unparalleled control and insight into company spending. Issue cards with limits and restrictions. Automate your time consuming monthly expense reports. Ramp's accounting software collects receipts, categorizes those expenses in real time. No more chasing down receipts or people, whether you have five employees or 500, says Ramp, it's easy to get set up with. When you get set up, you can start making payments in less than 15 minutes, and right now you can get $250.

13:26
Speaker 4
When you join Ramp, you can go to ramp.com, explained ramp.com explained Ramp.com explained.

13:41
Speaker 1
Support for the program today comes from Robinhood. There are lots of ways to potentially boost your investments these days, and even more options on where to stash them. If you're interested in finding new ways to invest, you might consider moving your brokerage account over to Robinhood. Whether you're transferring $1,000 or $2 million. Right now, Robinhood is offering an unlimited 1% bonus on your assets. Unlimited as in no cap, as the kids say. You can see why over 3 million people have rated Robinhood five stars on the App Store, according to Robinhood. You can visit robinhood.com explain to claim your bonus terms. Apply to the bonus. See full bonus terms@robinhood.com. Investments offered through Robinhood Financial LLC investing is risky.

14:46
Speaker 4
Support for today. Explain comes from into the mix, a podcast from Ben and Jerry's about joy and justice, produced with Vox Creative. In the 1960s, Priscilla Robinson lived on the south side of Asheville, North Carolina. But in 1968, she and her family were told by the city that they're going to have to move because of a policy called urban renewal. If you've not heard of it, look it up. Urban renewal in this case replaced more than 50% of Asheville's black population. Across the city, residents of majority black neighborhoods were given directions to relocate to public housing to make way for what officials called revitalization. Urban renewal, of course, was not unique to Asheville, but for Priscilla, Asheville is unique. The south side was special, and she is agitating for reparations. On the latest episode of into the mix, you can hear host Ashley C.

15:34
Speaker 4
Ford talk with Priscilla about her past, her city, her efforts subscribe to into the mix.

15:43
Speaker 1
Look at me short. Look at me short. I'm the captain now today explained is back with Josh Keating. Josh, you mentioned that the houthis will basically stop hijacking ships when they feel like it. How are shipping companies responding to that?

15:56
Speaker 3
Well, the big announcement last week was that Marisk, the major danish shipping company, basically said it's going to keep sending its ships all the way around Africa. Maisk says one of its container shipments was targeted by a missile allegedly coming from a part of Yemen controlled by the houthi rebels and several other. The major shippers have done the same.

16:16
Speaker 6
One in five commercial ships are now avoiding the Red Sea because of the threat of attack. The Red Sea accounts for 15% of the world's shipping and plays a crucial part in the global supply chain.

16:29
Speaker 3
It should be mentioned there is still shipping happening in the Red Sea. The volume is down about 20%, which tells you there is still a lot of shipping happening.

16:36
Speaker 6
The Suez Canal Authority is very keen for shipping to continue making that passage through the Red Sea. They've released a statement. They say the navigation through the sewers canal flows normally as usual. Suez Canal will remain the fastest and shortest route, as opposed to, of course, that route around the Cape of Good Hope.

16:53
Speaker 3
The Houthis, interestingly, don't seem to be targeting energy shipments like oil and gas shipments, yet they're really focusing on these container ships, perhaps because those are more associated with the western powers they accuse of backing Israel, rather know middle eastern countries that are producing the energy. It's been interesting to hear the way the biden administration has sort of presented this. I was on a call with one senior administration official last week who was basically trying to sort of distance this operation from the US support for Israel and Gaza, basically saying these are two different things that protecting commerce and the Red Sea, protecting the global economy. This is something everybody should be signing up for. Whatever they think about the war in Gaza.

17:43
Speaker 7
There is no justification for these attacks on global commerce, and we hope the world will join us in condemning these attacks and working to stop them. Our collective efforts remain open for additional countries to join in the crucial mission of defending the free flow of commerce in the Red Sea.

17:58
Speaker 3
I'm not sure that message is quite getting across, given that they announced that there are going to be about 20 countries in this coalition that they've formed, but they've only publicized the names of twelve of them, which suggests that there are a few countries that don't really want to be associated with a US led military effort in the Middle east right now.

18:19
Speaker 7
Yesterday, the Department of Defense announced the establishment of Operation Prosperity Guardian, a multinational security initiative focused on advancing security in the Red Sea. In the face of this threat, welcome the participation of our allies and partners, the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain, in confronting the threat.

18:40
Speaker 1
And that's why the United States is out there blowing up houthi vessels.

18:45
Speaker 3
Well, it's been a long standing national security priority of the United States since the 70s, if not earlier, to make sure that particularly energy, but that trade can continue through this waterway. In the 1980s, there was a sort of series of US Iran skirmishes called the tanker War.

19:08
Speaker 8
The war on land between Iran and Iraq is spilling over into the sea, with western tankers being the sitting targets for both sides. If they're going to pick up oil from Iran, they face the threat of attack by iraqi planes armed with Exocet missiles. If they're going to the oil terminals on the other side, they face attack by iranian planes.

19:28
Speaker 3
So there's some precedent actually for sort of US and Iran or Iran backed forces kind of exchanging fire to keep energy flowing from that. You know, the US has more military resources in that region than any other country and is the one that shipping companies kind of turn to when this happens. In that context, another country that I didn't mention earlier is China, which also relies heavily on this sea route both for shipping goods to Europe and for shipping energy from the Middle east. They are not involved in Operation Prosperity Guardian. They do not appear to be involved militarily in any way, and the US doesn't seem in a hurry to involve them for whatever reason. So that's an interesting wrinkle at this.

20:22
Speaker 3
Particularly some of the ships that have come under attack have actually been Hong Kong flagged, so you would think they would have some stake in this. In years past, the US and China actually did collaborate combating somali piracy, like, not too far away from this, for instance. But this time, no collaboration between the US and China on this.

20:41
Speaker 1
This feels like just like the latest reminder of how fragile our shipping is. There have been many recent reminders. Right?

20:49
Speaker 3
Yeah. I mean, people may remember two years ago when the ever given a cargo ship got lodged sideways in the Suez Canal and shut that down for about a week.

20:59
Speaker 1
The 400 meters long evergiven got stuck on Tuesday morning, running aground in high winds, reportedly after a power failure on board a fleet of tugboats has been trying to refloat the mega ship ever since, while a digger, tiny by comparison, tries to extricate her bough from the eastern bank.

21:17
Speaker 3
That only lasted for a week and it was sort of much lower stakes. This has the potential to be a much bigger disruption. I've spent most of the last two years, up until October, writing about the war in Ukraine. It's been my main focus and that's been another case where these issues have come into play because there was sort of heavily mining and military activity in the Black Sea. Russia basically effectively blockaded the southern coast of Ukraine. And in that case, the key commodity wasn't energy or finished goods, it was grain. Ukraine's a major exporter of grain, especially to actually countries like Egypt and in the Middle east and Africa. And so, you know, the UN got involved. There was a sort of deal that was brokered to allow grain shipments through that fell apart, but that was another.

22:07
Speaker 3
A lot of the same issues actually were involved there. It was shippers needing assurances that they'd be safe, like worrying about freight rates and insurance. And it's just kind of a reminder of how much disruption that geopolitical tensions can cause this industry that the global economy could not function without.

22:28
Speaker 1
Which I think people forget, right, because you don't ever see a cargo ship unless you live in a port city, and even then maybe you don't. You just order something online and in two days or whatever, it's at your doorstep, right?

22:42
Speaker 3
And people involved in this industry say that people only pay attention to them when something goes wrong. And it's not just war that does this. I mean, an interesting dynamic right now is that at the same time the Suez route is blocked, the Panama Canal is actually operating at substantially reduced capacity because of drought.

23:03
Speaker 1
Severe drought is drying up the lakes that feed the canal, plunging water levels so low they've had to cut the number of vessels passing through from 36 to 32 per day, delaying goods and creating a growing waiting room of ships out at sea. Some vessels are also being forced to carry up to 40% less cargo and slow down so they don't hit bottom.

23:26
Speaker 3
And so right now we're in this situation where you have both a war in the Middle east and the effects of climate change in Central America just sort of combining to create this massive disruption in the global shipping industry. This is a pretty adaptable industry. They're, they're kind of used to dealing with contingencies, with bad weather, with closed canals. It's going to cause a disruption. We're sort of through the Christmas season now, which they say is a major time for the shipping industry. The next one to watch is in February. It's going to be Lunar New Year in China, which is like a huge time for commerce in that country and is always a time when there's a major uptick in shipping.

24:24
Speaker 3
But a lot of industry experts I've been reading and talking to say we may be in for a disruption that's sort of on par with what we saw in Covid when you saw factories shutting down and shipping and there were shortages of certain goods because parts couldn't get there on time. It's just we're sort of used to this just in time manufacturing model, which depends on parts getting there on time, finished goods moving around. And for all the one click ecommerce of it, a lot of it's still like metal boxes on boats. And when something blocks those metal boxes from moving, it causes disruptions, like, all up and down the supply chain.

25:28
Speaker 1
Joshua Keating, you can call him Josh. He writes about the world for Vox. You can read him@vox.com we also had help with today's show from Julian Borger at the Guardian. Thanks, Julian. Halima Shaw and Hadi Mawagdi made our show today. Matthew Collete edited. Laura Bullard and Amanda Llewellyn fact checked. Patrick Boyd, mixed and mastered. This is today explained.