Election Wire: Iowa Voters Pick A Candidate | 1.7.24

00:03
Speaker 2
In just eight days, the GOP presidential primary will officially kick off, with voters in Iowa making their voices heard.

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Speaker 3
Throughout the election season. Morningwire will be bringing you in depth analysis of the 2024 presidential race. We'll hear from voters in key primary states, talk with candidates themselves, and break down all of the latest trends with election experts.

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Speaker 2
I'm daily Wire editor in chief John Bickley with Georgia Howe. It's Sunday, January 7, and this is the 2024 debut of election Wire. Here to discuss the state of the presidential race as we approach the all important Iowa caucus is daily wire senior editor Cabot Phillips. Hey, Cabot, so this is your Super Bowl. I know you're excited to see this race get formally underway this week.

00:49
Speaker 1
Yeah, you're absolutely right. You know, I love digging into the polling data, tracking campaign trends, but all of that really goes out the window on election day, when voters themselves will tell us where things stand. Is Trump's lead as large as it appears in the polls? Will Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis gain momentum and score a surprise win? And how will dark horse candidates like Vivek Ramaswamy and Christie fare? Thankfully, we don't have to answer those questions. Voters are going to do it for us.

01:12
Speaker 2
Right now, you're going to be providing us in depth coverage of every stage of the race leading up to November. But as always, the road to the White House starts in Iowa. You got the chance to spend some time there recently talking with voters and candidates. Give us a quick overview of where things stand there, and then we'll get to what you saw on the ground.

01:30
Speaker 1
Well, throughout the summer and fall, Donald Trump was dominating in the polls. And with just days left before the caucus, his grip on first place just shows no signs of weakening. Nationally, he's hovering around 60%, running laps around Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, who are basically in a dead heat right now for second place, around twelve, or 13% nationally. And while polling shows a slightly tighter race in Iowa, Trump still appears well ahead of the pack, pulling in around 50% while DeSantis sits around 20. For her part, Haley has enjoyed some momentum in the last few months, jumping from the mid single digits to the high teens in Iowa. Now, we have seen late movement before in Iowa, where voters are notorious for waiting until the very last minute to make up their minds in the 2020 democratic caucus.

02:13
Speaker 1
There, Bernie Sanders enjoyed a surge at the last minute to secure a surprise victory. And we saw a similar outcome in 2016, when Ted Cruz really outperformed expectations to beat out Trump. But remember, each of those races featured more crowded fields and narrow polling margins throughout the winter, which is very different from this year. All that to say, Trump is undoubtedly the front runner right now, but anything could happen, as Ron DeSantis said at an event I attended, voters, not polls, decide the final outcome. I got the chance to speak to the governor after one of his events in Cedar Rapids. Here's some of that conversation. All right, so, governor, what does a DeSantis presidency look like on day one?

02:52
Speaker 4
Day one, national emergency for the border, shutting it down, putting troops there, begin border wall construction, redeport illegals, and holding the mexican drug cartels accountable as being foreign terrorist organizations. Also day one, take all the rules, regulations, executive orders involving bidenomics. Rip it out, throw it in the trash can. Also day one, open up all domestic energy for production, lower energy prices so that we can be energy dominant, and then have thousands of people ready to go to be in the government, so that we can take this administrative state and cut it down to size and bring discipline to it so that there's accountability. We're going to return the government to its rightful owners.

03:36
Speaker 1
That's we the people we've been talking to Iowans. One message that I've heard is people saying, I like Governor DeSantis, but I know what I'm getting with President Trump. What's your message to those kinds of people?

03:46
Speaker 4
Well, I have a track record of success, of delivering on american first policies that's actually unmatched, even more so than the former president. I delivered on all these things. We need somebody that can do it for two terms, not just one term. Also have a better electoral track record. I mean, I think when the media is pumping Trump up, why would they be doing, they hated him for seven years because I think they think by next November they're going to be able to beat him. They have a playbook that they can do. I'm not going to let that happen going forward. I also think I have a record of appointing much better personnel. He had a lot of problems with personnel. I don't think he solved that problem. And I think actually he'd probably have a difficult time recruiting good personnel.

04:26
Speaker 1
What do you view as the singular greatest threat facing America right now?

04:29
Speaker 4
Well, the number one security threat to the american people right now is probably the southern border. The number one foreign threat is the Chinese Communist Party. And Biden is failing on both of those. And those will both be issues that we address on day one.

04:44
Speaker 1
So in closing, we see the polls that appear to show President Trump at the large. You talked about your organization here in the state. You said you're confident. You have a lot of caucus goers and the infrastructure. What are you going to have to do to gain momentum in the final weeks here? What's your closure?

04:57
Speaker 4
This is how this normally happens, though. The numbers move significantly the last two weeks. And so with the fact that we have all these people lined up, the fact that we visit 99 counties, that gives you the foundation to ride that into the caucus with the momentum. And I think what's happened is so many other candidates have fallen off. If you talk to Iowans, it's Trump or me. I mean, I know people, the media wants to talk about Haley, but if you go walk these, like, that's rush. So we've got the people in play and we're just going to outwork everyone.

05:25
Speaker 1
And bring it home. At that same event, I also spoke with Congressman Chip Roy, the hardline House conservative who was in the state stumping for DeSantis. I asked him about why he chose the governor over former President Trump. Here's what he had to say on that front.

05:39
Speaker 5
Well, I would say, well, you know what you're getting with Governor DeSantis because he's delivered in Florida. You also know what you're getting with President Trump, and that is both good and bad. He's done a lot of good things. I mean, I'll support him if he's a nominee, but let's actually compare, right? It wasn't Governor DeSantis who empowered Anthony Fauci and all the bureaucrats in Washington to shut down the greatest country's economy in the history of the world. It wasn't he who created six to $8 trillion of additional debt. That was President Trump working with the democratic Congress. It wasn't Governor DeSantis who has allowed our borders to stay open and was saddling up with Paul Ryan to do amnesty first instead of security first.

06:13
Speaker 5
It wasn't Governor DeSantis who walked away from health care reform in 2017 on the first month on the job, saddling up with establishment in Washington. So, look, I can go down a list of the great things that President Trump has done, but at the end of the day, I want someone who can serve for eight years, who my kids on our grandkids and everybody around can go look at him and say, you know what? That guy wore the uniform. He loves his country.

06:34
Speaker 1
And then later on, I got the chance to talk with Iowa Attorney General Brennan Byrd, who endorsed former President Trump. Here's what she had to say about that decision?

06:42
Speaker 6
Well, I endorsed President Trump because I think he's the one who will fire Joe Biden and win our country back. And were all a lot better when he was president. The economy was strong, the border was secure. He took good care of our farmers here in Iowa, and also were safe in the world. We need President Trump back.

07:01
Speaker 2
Now, aside from lawmakers, you also got to speak with quite a few voters in the state. What did you learn on that front?

07:07
Speaker 1
Yeah, it was fun. I spent a few days on the ground attending campaign events and hearing from quite a few caucus goers themselves. Now, as expected, when I asked about the biggest issues for them personally, the overwhelming answer I heard time and time again was talk of the economy. Number one, I think for most, is probably the economy. Everything's going up. I have four lovely children and a wife and three. Four years ago, it was a lot easier to afford stuff. Now everything's going up. My oldest son went in the trades. He's a welder, makes good money. He told me two years ago, I want to be the first my friend group to buy a house. Biden got elected, and now he's wondering if he'll ever be able to buy a house.

07:46
Speaker 1
And it's unfortunate because he wants to make money and live the american dream. And right now, he's frustrated, and rightfully so.

07:55
Speaker 7
I'm getting paid more now than what I was a couple years ago due to a good contract. But I'm bringing home less because everything costs more. My gross is higher, but my net is lower. For me is I consider myself middle class. Just yesterday, my wife sets two bags.

08:16
Speaker 1
Of groceries on the car.

08:17
Speaker 7
She goes, that's $75. So I think inflation is number one.

08:22
Speaker 1
Economy has been terrible. Inflation is just terrible. Grocery shopping is unbelievably expensive.

08:29
Speaker 6
Yeah, I agree. The economy is probably the biggest thing.

08:31
Speaker 1
I think we got some major issues on inflation and what it means to actually make a living in this country.

08:36
Speaker 4
And how to pay your bills.

08:37
Speaker 1
Inflation, grocery bills, gas prices and everything being wild and just grocery items going up in price. Election season, they're going to start printing money, printing money so the economy looked good. It's like cleaning up the house real quick before someone visits. You know what you're like. No, it wasn't just messy, I promise. Later on in the week, I attended a Trump rally in Waterloo, Iowa. It was interesting to see the different strategies between the former president and his opponents. While Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, and Vivek Ramaswami have held hundreds of smaller events throughout the state, Trump has opted instead for a smaller number of very large rallies. For example, in the second half of 2023, Trump held just 28 total events in Iowa, compared to 45 for Haley, 144 for DeSantis, and 233 for Ramaswami.

09:26
Speaker 1
But again, Trump's rallies have by far drawn the largest crowds. I saw that firsthand as Iowans packed out a large convention center in town for his event. I spoke with his supporters and other undecided voters about another big issue in this race, the legal cases against Trump. And they were all in universal agreement on that matter. Have a listen. I think it's just, they're just trying to blow up something that's not there to keep them from being the president of the United States. They're trying to scuffle up something that's non existent and creating a big cloud that's not there. I haven't followed it too closely, but it's just crazy how much they're attacking this guy about just every single thing.

10:08
Speaker 7
They're afraid. They're chicken. They're scared. They're trying to do anything they can to get in President Trump's way, trying to make it cost a fortune. Weaponization of the DOJ is exactly what I see.

10:24
Speaker 1
I think that they're really pushing it hard. They want to do it before the election. I think it's just purely political deal. Honestly, if he is convicted, I see.

10:34
Speaker 5
Him still getting through it.

10:35
Speaker 2
Somebody don't want him back in office. And I feel like that's why they slammed him. They assassinated his character so much. Like what? But it makes sense.

10:44
Speaker 1
It's throwing stones in a glass house because it just feels like if they do convict him and they try to get him off the ballot, we're just going to have a record number of write in votes because ain't no one here really going to vote for anyone else. You know what I mean?

10:58
Speaker 2
Well, we're finally here, the first of the states in 2024. We'll see who Republicans in Iowa choose. Cabot, thanks for reporting.

11:05
Speaker 1
Anytime.

11:05
Speaker 2
That's Daily Wire's senior editor, Cabot Phillips. And this was the first edition of the 2024 election wire. Throughout the coming year, we'll offer plenty more in depth coverage. The races and, of course, continue to bring you the news you need to know.